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\begin{document}

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\thispagestyle{empty}



\begin{figure}[t!]\vspace*{0.5cm}
\caption{Race, Gender, and Republican Party Support I \label{fig1}}

\begin{minipage}{.48\textwidth}

\begin{center}
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=1]
\draw[help lines, white] (0,0) grid(6, 6);
\fill[gray!20!white] (0,4) rectangle (2,6);
\fill[gray!60!white] (2,4) rectangle (4,6);
\draw (2, 8) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{ \normalsize (a)} ;
\draw (0,4) -- (4,4) -- (4,6) -- (0,6) -- (0,4);
\draw (2,4) -- (2,6);
\draw (0,4) -- (0,6) node[midway,left=2pt]{ \footnotesize Women};
\draw (0,6) -- (2,6) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize Black} -- (4,6) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize  White};
\draw (0,6) -- (4,6) node[midway,above=16pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize Race};
\draw (1,5) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize Low };
\draw (3,5) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize High };
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}

\end{minipage}
\begin{minipage}{.48\textwidth}

\begin{center}
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=1]
\draw[help lines, white] (0,0) grid(6, 6);
\fill[gray!20!white] (0,2) rectangle (2,6);
\fill[gray!60!white] (2,2) rectangle (4,6);
\draw (0,2) -- (4,2) -- (4,6) -- (0,6);
\draw (2,2) -- (2,6);
\draw (0,4) -- (4,4);
\draw (2, 8) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{ \normalsize (b)} ;
\draw (0,2) -- (0,4) node[midway,left=2pt]{ \footnotesize  Men} -- (0,6) node[midway,left=2pt]{ \footnotesize Women};
\draw (0,2) -- (0,6) node[midway,left=26pt]{  \footnotesize Gender};
\draw (0,6) -- (2,6) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize Black} -- (4,6) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize  White};
\draw (0,6) -- (4,6) node[midway,above=16pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize Race};
\draw (1,5) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize Low };
\draw (3,5) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize High };
\draw (1,3) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize Low};
\draw (3,3) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize High};
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}

\end{minipage}

\end{figure} 

\clearpage

\thispagestyle{empty}


\begin{figure}[t!]\vspace*{0.5cm}
\caption{Race, Gender, and Republican Party Support II \label{fig12}}

\begin{minipage}{.48\textwidth}

\begin{center}
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=1]
\draw[help lines, white] (0,0) grid(6, 6);
\fill[gray!20!white] (0,4) rectangle (4,6);
\draw (2, 8) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{ \normalsize (a)} ;
\draw (0,4) -- (4,4) -- (4,6) -- (0,6) -- (0,4);
\draw (2,4) -- (2,6);
\draw (0,4) -- (0,6) node[midway,left=2pt]{ \footnotesize Women};
\draw (0,6) -- (2,6) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize Black} -- (4,6) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize  White} ;
\draw (0,6) -- (4,6) node[midway,above=16pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize Race};
\draw (1,5) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize Low };
\draw (3,5) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize Low };
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}

\end{minipage}
\begin{minipage}{.48\textwidth}

\begin{center}
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=1]
\draw[help lines, white] (0,0) grid(6, 6);
\fill[gray!20!white] (0,2) rectangle (4,6);
\fill[gray!60!white] (2,2) rectangle (4,4);
\draw (0,2) -- (4,2) -- (4,6) -- (0,6);
\draw (2,2) -- (2,6);
\draw (0,4) -- (4,4);
\draw (2, 8) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{ \normalsize (b)} ;
\draw (0,2) -- (0,4) node[midway,left=2pt]{ \footnotesize  Men} -- (0,6) node[midway,left=2pt]{ \footnotesize Women};
\draw (0,2) -- (0,6) node[midway,left=26pt]{  \footnotesize Gender};
\draw (0,6) -- (2,6) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize Black} -- (4,6) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize  White};
\draw (5, 6) node[text width=2cm,above=2pt, text centered]{\footnotesize \textcolor{Gray}{Difference}};
\draw (0, 1) node[text width=1.5cm, left, text centered]{\footnotesize \textcolor{Gray}{Difference}};
\draw (0,6) -- (4,6) node[midway,above=16pt,sloped]{ \footnotesize Race};
\draw (1,5) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize Low };
\draw (3,5) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize Low };
\draw (1,3) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize Low};
\draw (3,3) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize High};
\draw (5,5) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize \textcolor{Gray}{None} };
\draw (1, 1) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize \textcolor{Gray}{None}};
\draw (3, 1) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize \textcolor{Gray}{Positive}};
\draw (5, 3) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\footnotesize \textcolor{Gray}{Positive}};

\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}

\end{minipage}

 \end{figure} 


\thispagestyle{empty}


\begin{figure}[h!]
\caption{The Conditional Effect of Gender on Republican Party Support \label{fig31}}

\vspace*{0.05cm}

\begin{center}
(a) 
\end{center}

\vspace*{0.25cm}

\centering
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=0.4]
    \begin{axis}[
    width=\linewidth, 
    xlabel=Effect Size, xlabel style = {font=\huge}, ytick={0, 1, 2, 3}, yticklabels={ g, Effect of being Female among Black People: $\beta_{1}+\beta_{3}$, Effect of being Female among White People: $\beta_{1}$, Interaction/Intersectional Effect: $\beta_{3}$}, yticklabel style = {font=\huge}, xticklabel style = {font=\huge}, xmin=-0.85, xmax=0.85, xtick={-0.8, -0.6, -0.4, -0.2, 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8} , 
]

\addplot [black,mark=*, line width=1mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={line width=0.5mm,black} 
]
    coordinates {
    (-0.4,3) +- (0.1, 3)
    };
    
    \addplot [black,mark=*, line width=1mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={line width=0.5mm,black}  
]
    coordinates {
    (-0.2,2) +- (0.08, 2)
    };
    
    \addplot [black,mark=*, line width=1mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={line width=0.5mm,black}  
]
    coordinates {
    (-0.6,1) +- (0.15, 1)
    };
    
 
\draw [lightgray, dashed, line width=0.7mm] (0,0) -- (0,12);

\node [above, font=\LARGE, black] at (-0.4,3.02) {$-0.4$};
\node [above, font=\LARGE, black] at (-0.2,2.02) {$-0.2$};
\node [above, font=\LARGE, black] at (-0.6,1.02) {$-0.6$};

    \end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}

\vspace*{0.15cm}

\begin{center}
(b) 
\end{center}

\vspace*{0.25cm}

\centering
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=0.4]
    \begin{axis}[
 width=\linewidth, 
    xlabel=Effect Size, xlabel style = {font=\huge}, ytick={0, 1, 2, 3}, yticklabels={ g, Effect of being Female among Black People: $\beta_{1}+\beta_{3}$, Effect of being Female among White People: $\beta_{1}$, Interaction/Intersectional Effect: $\beta_{3}$}, yticklabel style = {font=\huge}, xticklabel style = {font=\huge}, xmin=-0.85, xmax=0.85, xtick={-0.8, -0.6, -0.4, -0.2, 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8} ,
]

\addplot [black,mark=*, line width=1mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit,  error bar style={line width=0.5mm,black}
]
    coordinates {
    (-0.4,3) +- (0.1, 3)
    };
    
    \addplot [black,mark=*, line width=1mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={line width=0.5mm,black}
]
    coordinates {
    (0.2,2) +- (0.08, 2)
    };
    
    \addplot [black,mark=*, line width=1mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={line width=0.5mm,black}
]
    coordinates {
    (-0.2,1) +- (0.15, 1)
    };
    
 
\draw [lightgray, dashed, line width=0.7mm] (0,0) -- (0,12);

\node [above, font=\LARGE, black] at (-0.4,3.02) {$-0.4$};
\node [above, font=\LARGE, black] at (0.2,2.02) {$0.2$};
\node [above, font=\LARGE, black] at (-0.2,1.02) {$-0.2$};

    \end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}

\vspace*{0.15cm}

\begin{center}
(c) 
\end{center}

\vspace*{0.25cm}

\centering
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=0.4]
    \begin{axis}[
 width=\linewidth, 
    xlabel=Effect Size, xlabel style = {font=\huge}, ytick={0, 1, 2, 3}, yticklabels={ g, Effect of being Female among Black People: $\beta_{1}+\beta_{3}$, Effect of being Female among White People: $\beta_{1}$, Interaction/Intersectional Effect: $\beta_{3}$}, yticklabel style = {font=\huge}, xticklabel style = {font=\huge}, xmin=-0.85, xmax=0.85, xtick={-0.8, -0.6, -0.4, -0.2, 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8} ,
]

\addplot [black,mark=*, line width=1mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={line width=0.5mm,black}
]
    coordinates {
    (-0.4,3) +- (0.1, 3)
    };
    
    \addplot [black,mark=*, line width=1mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={line width=0.5mm,black} 
]
    coordinates {
    (0.6,2) +- (0.08, 2)
    };
    
    \addplot [black,mark=*, line width=1mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={line width=0.5mm,black}
]
    coordinates {
    (0.2,1) +- (0.15, 1)
    };
    
 
\draw [lightgray, dashed, line width=0.7mm] (0,0) -- (0,12);

\node [above, font=\LARGE, black] at (-0.4,3.02) {$-0.4$};
\node [above, font=\LARGE, black] at (0.6,2.02) {$0.6$};
\node [above, font=\LARGE, black] at (0.2,1.02) {$0.2$};

    \end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}


\end{figure}

\clearpage

\thispagestyle{empty}


\begin{figure}[t!]
\caption{The Conditional Effects of Gender and Race on Republican Support in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections  \label{fig4}}

%\vspace*{0.25cm}

\begin{center}


\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=0.65]
    \begin{axis}[
    width=\linewidth, 
    xlabel=Effect Size, xtick={-3, -2.5, -2, -1.5, -1, -0.5, 0, 0.5}, ytick={0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10}, yticklabels={ g,  Effect of being Black among Women, Effect of being Black among Men, Effect of being Female among Black People, Effect of being Female among White People, Interaction/Intersectional Effect for Gender and Race} , xticklabel style = {font=\Large}, yticklabel style = {font=\Large}, xlabel style = {font=\Large}, ylabel style = {font=\Large}
]


\addplot [black,mark=*, line width=0.5mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={ultra thick,black}
]
    coordinates {
    (-0.04,8) +- (0.23, 10)
    };
    
    \addplot [black,mark=*, line width=0.5mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={ultra thick,black}
]
    coordinates {
    (-1.07,6) +- (0.65, 8)
    };
    
    \addplot [black,mark=*, line width=0.5mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={ultra thick,black} 
]
    coordinates {
    (-1.50,4) +- (0.54, 6)
    };
    
    \addplot [black,mark=*, line width=0.5mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={ultra thick,black}
]
    coordinates {
    (-2.53,2) +- (0.43, 4)
    };
    
    \addplot [black,mark=*, line width=0.5mm] plot[error bars/.cd, x dir=both, x explicit, error bar style={ultra thick,black}
]
    coordinates {
    (-1.03,10) +- (0.69, 2) 
    };

\draw [gray, dashed, line width=0.4mm] (0,0) -- (0,12);

\node [above, font=\large, black] at (-0.04,8.02) {$-0.04$};
\node [above, font=\large, black] at (-1.07,6.02) {$-1.07$};
\node [above, font=\large, black] at (-1.5,4.02) {$-1.50$};
\node [above, font=\large, black] at (-2.53,2.02) {$-2.53$};
\node [above, font=\large, black] at (-1.03,10.02) {$-1.03$};


\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}

\end{figure}

\clearpage

\thispagestyle{empty}


\begin{figure}[h!]
\caption{Predicted Values and the Conditional Effects of Gender and Race on Support for the Republican Party in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections \label{fig5}}

\begin{center}
 \begin{tikzpicture}[scale=1.5]
 %\draw[help lines] (0,0) grid(6, 6);
 	\fill[gray!20!white] (0,2) rectangle (4,6);
            \draw (0,2) -- (0,6) -- (4,6) -- (4,2) -- (0,2);
            \draw (2,2) -- (2,6);
            \draw (0,4) -- (4,4);

            \node [left=2pt, font=\normalsize] at (0,1.5) {Difference};

            \draw (0,2) -- (0,4) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \normalsize  Female} -- (0,6) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \normalsize Male};
            \draw (0,2) -- (0,6) node[midway,above=26pt,sloped]{  \normalsize Gender};
            \draw (0,6) -- (2,6) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \normalsize White} -- (4,6) node[midway,above=2pt,sloped]{ \normalsize  Black};
            \draw (0,6) -- (4,6) node[midway,above=26pt,sloped]{ \normalsize Race};
            \draw (1,5) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\small $5.08$\\($4.90$, $5.26$) };
            \draw (3,5) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\small $3.58$\\($3.07$, $4.09$) };
            \draw (1,3) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\small $5.04$\\
            ($4.86$, $5.21$)};
            \draw (3,3) node[text width=2cm,text centered]{\small $2.51$\\
            ($2.10$, $2.91$)};
\node [above=2pt, font=\normalsize] at (5,6) {Difference};
\draw (1,1.5) node[text width=2.3cm,text centered]{\small $-0.04$\\
            ($-0.27$, $0.19$)};
\draw (3,1.5) node[text width=2.3cm,text centered]{\small $-1.07$\\
            ($-1.72$, $-0.42$)};
\draw (5,5) node[text width=2.3cm,text centered]{\small $-1.50$\\
            ($-2.04$, $-0.96$)};
\draw (5,3) node[text width=2.3cm,text centered]{\small $-2.53$\\
            ($-2.96$, $-2.10$)};
\draw (5,1.5) node[text width=2.3cm,text centered]{\small \textcolor{gray}{$-1.03$}\\
            \textcolor{gray}{($-1.72$, $-0.34$)}};
    \end{tikzpicture}
 \end{center}
 
\end{figure}

\clearpage



\end{document}